France vs England

The match neither team wanted, which is precisely what makes it a bettor’s fixture. Third-place play-offs are historically the most open games of any World Cup - rotated squads, nothing left to defend, and players auditioning for the next cycle.

The case for the tip

Both sides arrive off semi-final defeats and both managers will rotate heavily. England’s knockout run produced goals at both ends in every match; France’s discipline tends to loosen when the stakes drop. The third-place fixture has gone over 2.5 goals at most recent World Cups, and these squads carry too much attacking talent for a cagey dead rubber.

Verdict

Over 2.5 goals at 1.75. Ignore the 1X2 entirely - team news an hour before kickoff will reshape it. The goals angle survives any line-up.