Barcelona vs Real Madrid

The first Clasico of the season, Sunday night in Barcelona. The market makes the home side a 62 percent favourite, and on recent form it is not hard to see why: Barcelona put five past Betis away last weekend. Real Madrid answered with a 4-1 over Sevilla and before that won 4-3 at Roma in the Champions League. Two teams scoring freely, neither defending with much conviction, and the biggest fixture in club football as the stage.

The case for the tip

Look at the last three matches each side has played and count the goals. Barcelona: 5-2 at Betis. Real Madrid: 4-1 against Sevilla, 4-3 at Roma. The Clasico has gone over 2.5 goals in the large majority of recent meetings and both of these squads are set up to attack first. Barcelona’s high line invites the counter that Real Madrid’s forwards live for; Real Madrid’s defence has been conceding to everyone. Three goals or more is not a bold call in this fixture, it is the median.

The trap to avoid

Picking a winner. Barcelona at 1.62 is short for a match this volatile, and Real Madrid at 4.75 is tempting precisely because it is a Clasico and everyone has a theory. The honest position is that the goals are far more predictable than who scores more of them. Stay on the total.

Verdict

Over 2.5 goals at 1.50. One unit. Featured.