Published in full, losses included
Track record
Every verdict we publish is listed here with the price we quoted and what happened - wins, losses and all. Tipsters who only show winners are selling something. This page is the alternative: a permanent, honest ledger you can check before believing a word we write.
Calculated at level stakes: 1 unit per verdict, returns at the price quoted when published. Void or postponed selections are excluded from the settled count. Analysis is produced by an AI model and published by an editor; the rules are on the methodology page. 2 verdicts currently pending.
The ledger
7 Nov 2026 · La Liga
Valencia vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win @ 1.30
0-3 Real Madrid. Goals on 28, 36 and 75, 72% possession, 16 shots to 2, and Valencia finished with ten men on 79. Valencia had one shot on target in ninety minutes. As one-sided as a 1.30 price implies, and the one result of the week that needed no commentary. Won. // Result checked 2026-11-09: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
7 Nov 2026 · Serie A
Roma vs Sassuolo
Roma to win @ 1.38
3-0 Roma. Two goals in four minutes on 27 and 30, a third on 58, 20 shots to 5 and twelve corners to one. Settled by half-time. Roma have now scored 15 in their last four games in all competitions, and at 1.38 this was priced about right. Won. // Result checked 2026-11-09: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
7 Nov 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 10
Arsenal vs Hull
Arsenal -1.5 Asian handicap @ 1.60
1-0 Arsenal. The handicap needed a two-goal margin and Arsenal won by one, so the bet loses in full; there is no half-refund at -1.5. Arsenal had 19 shots, nine on target, and the Hull goalkeeper made eight saves before the only goal arrived on 72. Hull picked up five yellow cards defending a low block for 72 minutes and nearly got the draw. In October we wrote that the handicap was the trap in a game against a side that sits in, then took one against a side that sits in. The reading of the match was right and the market was wrong, which is the same thing as a loss. Lost at 1.60. // Result checked 2026-11-09: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
4 Nov 2026 · Champions League
AEK Athens vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win @ 1.28
2-3 Real Madrid. AEK led on 12, Real levelled on 32, AEK led again on 75, Real levelled on 78 and scored the winner in the 90th minute, with AEK finishing with ten men. Real had 21 shots and 64% of the ball, so the performance matched the price; the scoreline did not until the last kick. A 1.28 price is a 78% break-even, and for most of the second half this was the 22%. Won, and logged as a late one, the fourth bet since 21 October decided on 87 or later. // Result checked 2026-11-09: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
3 Nov 2026 · Champions League
Man United vs Roma
Both teams to score @ 1.65
3-2 Man United. Roma scored on 11 and 17, so the bet needed a United goal and got it on 58; the market was settled there, and United then scored on 83 and 86 to win the game. Roma had five shots in total, four on target, and converted two of them. The thesis was that United concede and score in the same game, and both halves of it landed before the hour. Won at 1.65. // Result checked 2026-11-09: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
3 Nov 2026 · Champions League
Barcelona vs Aston Villa
Barcelona to win @ 1.28
3-0 Barcelona. Goals on 7, 52 and 64, 15 shots to 8, and Villa managed one shot on target all night. The featured pick at 1.28 was never in question after the first ten minutes, which is what a 78% price is supposed to look like. Won, comfortably. // Result checked 2026-11-09: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
1 Nov 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 9
Liverpool vs Arsenal
Arsenal to win @ 2.25
0-1 Arsenal. Madueke scored on 16 and Arsenal defended the lead for 75 minutes plus seven of stoppage. Liverpool had 57% of the ball and 18 shots, four on target, all saved; Arsenal had ten shots and needed one. The thesis was that the Liverpool defence of the last three weeks was worse than its price and that Arsenal's was the best in the league; the game produced exactly that, a first league win at Anfield since 2012 and a sixth clean sheet in nine. Won on merit at 2.25, the best-value result of the season so far. // Result checked 2026-11-02: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
31 Oct 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 9
Bournemouth vs Leeds
Bournemouth to win @ 2.20
2-0 Bournemouth. Goals on 31 and 90. Leeds had 56% of the ball and seven shots with none on target; Bournemouth had ten shots and six on target. The preview said Leeds were built for a 1-1 and the trap was the draw; Leeds never tested the goalkeeper, so the draw was never close. The second goal in the 90th flattered the margin, not the result. Won at 2.20. // Result checked 2026-11-02: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
31 Oct 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 9
Chelsea vs Man United
Chelsea to win @ 1.85
2-0 Chelsea. Goalless at half-time, then goals on 50 and 64. Chelsea had 20 shots, ten on target, and 59% of the ball; United had ten shots, four on target, picked up five yellow cards and a second-yellow red. The preview backed the home side because United's last three results were not in the price; a seventh game without a win and a fourth straight defeat says they still are not. Won at 1.85, comfortably after the hour. // Result checked 2026-11-02: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
25 Oct 2026 · Serie A
Inter vs Fiorentina
Inter to win @ 1.36
2-1 Inter. Fiorentina led from the 65th minute until the 90th, when Inter scored twice in injury time to win it. Inter had 30 shots, 10 on target, and De Gea made eight saves. The thesis, that Inter at home are too strong for Fiorentina, was right on every number except the one that pays, and at 1.36 this was a loss until the last two minutes. Three of this week's six wins were decided on 87 or later. That is luck, and it is written down as luck so that when it runs the other way the record reads the same. // Result checked 2026-10-26: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
25 Oct 2026 · La Liga
Barcelona vs Real Madrid
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.50
1-2 Real Madrid. Real scored on 41, Barcelona levelled on 61, and the third goal the bet needed came on 87. Barcelona had 63% of the ball and 16 shots to 9 and lost the game. The Clasico produced its goals as usual, but it needed almost all of the 90 to get over the line; a 1-1 at 86 minutes was one goal short. Logged as a late win, not a comfortable one. // Result checked 2026-10-26: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
24 Oct 2026 · Premier League
Arsenal vs Everton
Arsenal to win @ 1.40
2-0 Arsenal. Goals on 7 and 68, 18 shots and 12 corners against Everton's 8 and 3, and all three of Everton's shots on target were saved. In control from the seventh minute. A 1.40 price needs 71%; a home side with that shot count against this Everton clears it, and the result matched the price. // Result checked 2026-10-26: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
24 Oct 2026 · La Liga
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo
Atletico Madrid to win @ 1.28
1-0 Atletico. Goalless at half-time, Atletico scored on 48 after two half-time changes, then failed to add to it from 20 shots, 11 of them off target. Deportivo had four on target and Oblak was needed. A 1.28 price says this wins 78% of the time; a one-goal game with the favourite shooting wide for forty minutes is the other 22% knocking on the door. Won, not comfortably. // Result checked 2026-10-26: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
21 Oct 2026 · Champions League
Como vs Man Utd
Both teams to score @ 1.72
4-1 Como. Como scored on 2, 49, 57 and 76 and United did not score until the 90th minute, so a bet that needed both teams was dead from 4-0 on 76 until injury time and won on the last goal of the game. Como had nine shots on target to four. Half the thesis, Como scoring, was right by the second minute; the other half, United scoring, was wrong for 89 minutes. A win decided in the 90th is logged as variance, exactly as the Tottenham loss was two weeks ago. // Result checked 2026-10-26: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
21 Oct 2026 · Champions League
Aston Villa vs Viking
Aston Villa to win @ 1.22
3-1 Villa. Goals on 23, 37 and 62, Viking's reply on 84 after Villa had made five changes. 19 shots to 10. Settled by half-time and never in question. A 1.22 price is an 82% break-even; this was the result the price said it would be and nothing more. // Result checked 2026-10-26: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
18 Oct 2026 · Serie A - Matchweek 7
Milan vs Atalanta
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.13
3-2 Milan. Three home goals inside 57 minutes, then Atalanta pulled two back on 66 and 81. Five goals, 23 shots, 11 on target between them. We called a tight game and backed the under against two sides that both score; the instinct was wrong and the price at 2.13 was telling us so. Lesson filed for how we price Serie A totals. // Result checked 2026-10-21: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
17 Oct 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 7
Newcastle vs Aston Villa
Newcastle to win @ 2.22
0-1 Villa. Jackson scored on 36 and Villa held the rest of the game at arm's length. Newcastle had 11 shots but one on target, six yellow cards and five offsides, which is the picture of a side pressing without a plan. We backed home form; Villa's shape and a better front line took the match away. Wrong read, not bad luck. // Result checked 2026-10-21: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
17 Oct 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 7
Brentford vs Liverpool
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.59
1-2 Liverpool. Brentford led through Thiago on 44 and had Lewis-Potter sent off on the stroke of half time, then Liverpool scored twice against ten men on 62 and 70. Three goals, so the over landed, but all of it came after the red card and the first hour was heading nowhere. Liverpool had 60% of the ball and 22 shots to 9. We were paid for the right number via the wrong route. A win, not a clean read. // Result checked 2026-10-21: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
11 Oct 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 6
Liverpool vs Man City
Man City draw no bet @ 1.75
0-3 City. Goalless for an hour, then three in thirteen minutes on 65, 68 and 78, with Liverpool down to ten after a second yellow. City had 65% of the ball and 15 shots to 10. The preview said the form gap was wider than the price gap, and a side that has now won six from six beating a side that has drawn three of six by three at Anfield is that gap. Draw no bet was the insurance against the one result Liverpool do produce; it was not needed. Featured pick, fourth featured win in a row. // Result checked 2026-10-12: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
10 Oct 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 6
Man United vs Tottenham
Both teams to score - No @ 2.30
1-1. Goalless for 73 minutes, United scored, Tottenham went down to ten men on 78, and still equalised in the 90th. Spurs had three shots on target all game and converted the last of them with a man short. The thesis was that a side scoring 0.4 a game blanks more than four times in ten; for 89 minutes it was right. Both-teams-to-score-no has no refund on a late goal and we knew that when we took it. Second time this autumn a bet died inside the final two minutes. // Result checked 2026-10-11: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
10 Oct 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 6
Aston Villa vs Brentford
Both teams to score @ 1.52
2-2. Brentford scored on 10, Villa replied on 12, and the bet was settled inside a quarter of an hour. Villa then went 2-1 up on 77 and Brentford levelled on 79. Both defences did what the preview said they would: Villa conceded twice at home for the fourth time this season, Brentford traded goals away. 18 shots to 13. The head-to-head under trend broke, which is why we backed the form and not the history. // Result checked 2026-10-11: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
2 Oct 2026 · Nations League - Matchday 3
France vs Italy
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90
1-1. Goalless at half-time, Olise with a deflected free kick on 55, Bastoni on 68 after Italy pressed a French mistake playing out from the back. Upamecano was sent off late. Two goals, one under the line. The thesis was that France without Mbappe score once a game and Italy struggle against an organised defence, and both halves of that held: France managed one, Italy needed a gift for theirs. Featured pick, third featured win in a row.
Result checked 3 Oct 2026 · football-italia.net ↗
29 Sept 2026 · Nations League - Matchday 2
Spain vs Croatia
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.53
4-1 Spain. Yamal on 2 and 63, Pubill on 31, Williams on 89, Beljo for Croatia on 28. Three goals were in by the 31st minute, so the bet was settled before half-time. The preview said Croatia would go forward rather than sit in and that Spain would not rotate the front line, and both were right. Featured pick, second featured win in a row.
Result checked 30 Sept 2026 · espn.com ↗
28 Sept 2026 · Nations League - Matchday 2
Belgium vs France
Belgium or draw @ 1.91
0-1 France. Goalless until the 88th minute, when Olise came off the bench and ran from his own half to score. Belgium had the better first-half chance and France had six shots on target to two, so the game was closer than the head-to-head record and not as close as the price we took. The reasoning held for 87 minutes and a double chance only needs 90. It did not get them. Second straight loss backing the side without the star, and the note is the same both times: absences move the price less than they move the result.
Result checked 30 Sept 2026 · espn.com ↗
26 Sept 2026 · Nations League - Matchday 1
England vs Spain
Spain draw no bet @ 1.75
3-2 Spain. Yamal scored inside two minutes, England turned it round through Gordon and Kane before half-time, and Kane then missed a penalty that would have made it 3-1. Substitutes Baena and Oyarzabal won it on 60 and 74. The preview said the gap between the squads was wider than the coin-flip price implied, and a Spain side that comes from 2-1 down at Wembley is that gap. It also said the danger was a fast England start and a loud crowd, and for forty minutes that was exactly the game. Draw no bet was the right shape: had Kane scored the penalty this is a very different note.
Result checked 28 Sept 2026 · espn.com ↗
25 Sept 2026 · Nations League - Matchday 1
Italy vs Belgium
Under 2.5 goals @ 2.05
0-2 Belgium. Two goals, one under the line, so the bet wins - but not for the reason we gave. The preview said Italy would control a low-scoring game at home. Instead Belgium scored on 20 and 69, Italy were booed off at half-time and could have been three down before the break. We won because Belgium stopped at two and Scalvini missed a sitter, not because the reading was right. A win with a wrong thesis is logged as exactly that.
Result checked 26 Sept 2026 · espn.com ↗
24 Sept 2026 · Nations League - Matchday 1
Netherlands vs Germany
Both teams to score @ 1.62
1-1. Germany led through Nmecha on 32 while the Dutch were stopped for an injury, and it stayed 1-0 until the 92nd minute, when Gakpo volleyed in from a van Bommel cross. The bet was dead for an hour and won in stoppage time. Two defences without clean sheets all year both leaked, as the preview said, but we will not pretend this was comfortable.
Result checked 25 Sept 2026 · espn.com ↗
24 Sept 2026 · Nations League - Matchday 1
Portugal vs Wales
Portugal -1.5 @ 1.78
1-0 Portugal. Felix scored on 22 with a deflection, and that was the last goal despite 22 shots to 5. Ronaldo missed the target with five of seven attempts and had a goal ruled out by VAR. The trap named in the preview was exactly this: a comfortable win that never becomes a two-goal win. Portugal managed the game after the substitutions. Right read on the match, wrong bet on the margin.
Result checked 25 Sept 2026 · espn.com ↗
20 Sept 2026 · La Liga - Matchweek 7
Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid
Real Madrid to win @ 1.90
2-1 Atletico. Real Madrid had a man sent off on 52 minutes and conceded twice in the next seven, on 53 and 59. Before the red card it was 0-0 and the game was going the way the preview described. After it, ten men had 35% of the ball and one late goal on 89. We backed the straight win and said a derby can turn on a single disciplinary incident - it did. Featured pick, second featured loss in a row. // Result checked 2026-09-22: SportRadar match data via fetch_sports_data
19 Sept 2026 · Serie A - Matchweek 5
Roma vs Inter
Roma draw no bet @ 1.91
2-2, so draw no bet returns the stake. Roma led 2-0 after 37 minutes and had the better of it on volume (17 shots to 14), then conceded straight after the break and again on 79. The draw-no-bet cover was the whole reason for the bet type and it did its job, but a side two goals up at home should be a winner. Stake back, no credit claimed.
19 Sept 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 5
Brighton vs Arsenal
Arsenal to win @ 1.70
Brighton won 3-0. Arsenal had 57% of the ball and one shot on target all afternoon; Brighton scored on 31, 45 and 57 and it was over before the first Arsenal substitution. We priced Arsenal at 1.70 on reputation and their clean-sheet run and gave too little weight to a Brighton side that had just scored five. Short-priced away favourite, flat loss.
18 Sept 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 5
Brentford vs Chelsea
Over 3.5 goals @ 2.19
Brentford won 3-0. Three goals, one short of the line, and the third only arrived in the 90th minute. Goalless for an hour; Chelsea had 12 corners and 60% possession but two shots on target. We read two 2-2 draws as a goals fixture and asked for four at 2.19 - the preview itself warned that repeating scorelines is not a prediction. It was right and the bet was wrong.
13 Sept 2026 · Serie A - Matchweek 4
Napoli vs Bologna
Both teams to score @ 1.75
Napoli won 1-0. Bologna did not score, so the headline both-teams-to-score selection loses at its original 1.75. A Napoli win alone was not our recorded bet.
13 Sept 2026 · La Liga - Matchweek 5
Levante vs Barcelona
Over 3.5 goals @ 1.90
Barcelona won 4-2 at Levante. Six total goals clear the over 3.5 line. The headline selection wins at the original 1.90.
12 Sept 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 4
Sunderland vs Arsenal
Arsenal to win to nil @ 2.10
Arsenal won 2-0 and kept the required clean sheet. Raya saved a penalty while it was 0-0, so this was not the untroubled defensive performance the preview expected. The win-to-nil selection wins at the original 2.10.
12 Sept 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 4
Crystal Palace vs Ipswich
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72
Ipswich won 3-2 at Crystal Palace. Five total goals clear over 2.5, so the headline selection wins at the original 1.72. The match winner was not part of the bet.
6 Sept 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 3
Arsenal vs Chelsea
Arsenal -1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95
Arsenal won 2-1 - by exactly one, so the stake returns. Chelsea scored in the second minute, the losing script we named, and Arsenal chased it down with eight shots on target against six Martinez saves. At -1.5 this is our third handicap loss. At -1 it is a push. That half-goal was the entire lesson of the ledger, and it paid.
6 Sept 2026 · La Liga - Matchweek 4
Valencia vs Barcelona
Barcelona -1.5 @ 1.80
Barcelona won 0-5. The Mestalla trap never appeared - Valencia could not defend without the ball and the handicap was cleared before the hour.
6 Sept 2026 · Serie A - Matchweek 3
Juventus vs Milan
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.85
1-1, goalless until the 68th minute and Milan managed three shots all night. Two structured sides, one point good enough for both - the match the preview described.
4 Sept 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 3
Ipswich vs Liverpool
Both teams to score @ 1.70
Liverpool won 0-2, two goals inside nine minutes and then a clean sheet. Ipswich put five shots on target and Alisson saved every one. We named the losing script in the preview - a wounded champion simply overwhelming weak opposition - and it played out to the letter.
31 Aug 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 2
Aston Villa vs Arsenal
Arsenal to win @ 1.90
Arsenal won 0-1, and comfortably: Villa did not put a single shot on target. The market paid 1.90 for a Villa Park bounce that never existed. The simplest bet on the coupon was the value.
29 Aug 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 2
Tottenham vs Newcastle
Both teams to score @ 1.72
0-2. Spurs took 16 shots, won 9 corners and still blanked while Newcastle scored twice on the break. The chance creation we predicted showed up; the goal did not. Featured pick, honest loss.
29 Aug 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 2
Liverpool vs Nottingham Forest
Liverpool -1.5 @ 1.90
2-2. Liverpool trailed twice and needed an 82nd-minute equalizer just to draw. We backed a two-goal win from a team that could not manage a one-goal lead. No excuses.
28 Aug 2026 · Premier League - Matchweek 2
Crystal Palace vs Man City
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.95
Five goals, settled by the hour mark. City relentless (17 shots), Palace grabbed one back to seal the over early.
27 Aug 2026 · La Liga - Matchweek 3
Barcelona vs Athletic Club
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.72
Barca dominated (20 shots, 10 on target) but Athletic offered zero shots on target and parked the bus. 2-0, one goal short. The over needs two teams playing; we got a siege. Simon made 8 saves.
23 Aug 2026 · Premier League - Opening Weekend
Newcastle vs Liverpool
Both teams to score @ 1.68
Finished 2-2. The fixture character held: Newcastle refused to sit off, Liverpool opening-day rust at both ends. Four goals, verdict never in doubt after the hour.
23 Aug 2026 · Premier League - Opening Weekend
Manchester City vs Bournemouth
Man City -1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85
City won 2-1 - clinical, not an avalanche. We wrote the warning ourselves: champions in August win by control, not chaos. Bournemouth scoring killed the handicap. The -1.0 alternative flagged in the preview would have pushed; we grade the headline.
19 Jul 2026 · World Cup 2026 - Final
Spain vs Argentina
Both teams to score @ 1.80
Spain won 1-0. We wrote "finals tighten" and then backed goals anyway. The hedge in the same preview (Spain draw-no-bet) landed, but we grade the headline verdict.
18 Jul 2026 · World Cup 2026 - Third Place
France vs England
Over 2.5 goals @ 1.75
France 4-6 England. Ten goals in a dead rubber - the clearest read of the tournament.
15 Jul 2026 · World Cup 2026 - Semi-final
England vs Argentina
Both teams to score @ 1.75
Argentina won 2-1. Neither side kept a clean sheet in the knockouts and the pattern held.
14 Jul 2026 · World Cup 2026 - Semi-final
France vs Spain
Under 2.5 goals @ 1.90
Spain won 2-0. Two elite defensive structures, exactly two goals.
How we grade
The headline verdict of each preview is what gets graded - not the alternative angles, not the hedges. If a preview mentions a secondary bet that wins while the main verdict loses, the entry is still a loss. Prices are recorded as quoted at publication; markets move, and we do not retroactively improve our own odds.
What these numbers are worth
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