Liverpool vs Arsenal

Sunday at Anfield, the game of the weekend. Arsenal are second with 21 points from eight, seven wins and one defeat, and have conceded five league goals all season. Liverpool are fifth with 12 from seven, have drawn three, and have let in three goals in three of their last five games in all competitions. The market makes Arsenal 2.25, a 44% price for the best defence in the league against a side that is leaking.

Preview and price check: 26 October 2026, six days before kickoff. Kickoff is Sunday 1 November at 16:30 in Liverpool, 16:30 UTC, or 18:30 in Sofia. Clocks have changed: Sofia is now two hours ahead of UTC.

The case for the tip

Start with the defences. Arsenal have conceded five in eight league games, kept clean sheets against Forest and Everton in the last fortnight, and the only side to put two past them recently was Bayern Munich, in Munich, in a 2-2. Liverpool have conceded eight in seven in the league and the last three weeks read 0-3 against City, 3 conceded against LASK in a 6-3, 3 conceded against Villarreal in a 4-3. The 2-0 against Brighton on Sunday was the first clean sheet in that run.

Then the shape of the two seasons. Seven wins in eight is a title pace; three draws in seven is not. Arsenal’s one defeat was 0-3 at Brighton in September and they have won three league games in a row since, scoring at least once in each. Liverpool have the goals to win any game, 14 scored in their last four, but they have also conceded seven in those four, and against a side that gives up very little that trade does not favour them.

The straight win is the shape because the draw is the result both sides have been producing less often than their prices suggest: Arsenal have no draws in eight, and Liverpool’s three draws came in September. At 2.25 we are paid for the draw risk; at the 1.60 or so that draw no bet would cost, we are not.

The trap to avoid

Anfield. Arsenal have not won a league game there since 2012. The last two meetings were a 1-0 Liverpool win here in August 2025 and a 0-0 in London in January, and the historical pattern is that Arsenal travel to Liverpool, play well, and leave with at most a point. A record that long is not a coincidence, and backing against it at 2.25 is backing this Arsenal defence to be the one that finally changes it.

The second trap is the goals. Over 2.5 is priced at 1.80, the market expects an open game, and an open game at Anfield is Liverpool’s game. If Arsenal need to win a 3-2 rather than a 1-0, this bet is in trouble.

Verdict

Arsenal to win at 2.25, observed on 26 October. That is a 44% break-even, which is roughly where the market puts Arsenal’s chance; the edge we see is that the Liverpool defence of the last three weeks is worse than the one the price describes. Inspect the price and recheck it on Sunday when the elevens are confirmed.

The board records observed 1X2 prices of 3.00, 3.40 and 2.25 from one published book on 26 October. The headline is the Arsenal price from that board. Neither this board nor the preview is a live odds service.

Our last featured pick was Brentford-Liverpool over 2.5, which won. We have backed Arsenal five times this season: three wins, one defeat and one void. The track record has every one.