Ipswich vs Liverpool

Friday night at Portman Road opens the matchweek with the league’s strangest contrast: the champions who cannot stop drawing, against the promoted side that keeps scoring and keeps conceding more. Liverpool arrive off back-to-back 2-2s. Ipswich arrive off a 5-2 defeat at Old Trafford in which they still scored twice away at Manchester United.

The case for the tip

Liverpool have conceded two goals in every league match this season, and the pattern behind it is structural, not accidental - a high line without last season’s rest-defence discipline, and set-piece marking that Forest exposed twice in one afternoon. Ipswich, for their part, do not stop attacking even when the plan is failing: two goals at Old Trafford while conceding five is exactly the profile that trades goals with a vulnerable favourite. Both of Ipswich’s home fixtures and all of Liverpool’s league matches have seen both teams score. At 1.70, the market prices Liverpool’s attack correctly and their defence far too kindly.

The trap to avoid

The obvious trap is the moneyline: Liverpool at 1.55 looks like a champion’s price against a promoted side, but this Liverpool have not beaten anyone yet, and short favourites in poor form are how bankrolls leak. The subtler trap runs the other way - a wounded champion can simply overwhelm weak opposition, win 4-0, and make the clean sheet look easy. We think the defensive evidence outweighs the pedigree, but that is the scenario that kills this ticket.

Verdict

Both teams to score at 1.70. Two defences in visible disrepair, one of them belonging to a team that refuses to stop running forward.